Probabilistic risk modelling for port investments: A practical approach

Journal ar
Case Studies on Transport Policy
  • Volumen: 8
  • Número: 3
  • Fecha: 01 septiembre 2020
  • Páginas: 822-831
  • ISSN: 22136258 2213624X
  • Tipo de fuente: Revista
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2020.06.001
  • Tipo de documento: Artículo
  • Editorial: Elsevier Ltd
© 2020 World Conference on Transport Research SocietyEconomic and financial analyses of port projects are essential to ensure project viability in terms of defined objectives, adequate returns to private and public stakeholders, and to society in general. Moreover, including early-stage risk analysis ensures better decision making and better outcomes. However, project risk management is not very frequently used in port infrastructure projects. To improve this area and to ensure the kind of transparency, with clear figures, that would make ports attractive to private investors, a general methodology is described for including risk analysis in an economic-financial analytical model of a port investment project that considers probabilistic distributions for selected input and output variables to yield more information than could be obtained from a deterministic model. The proposed methodology is illustrated by applying it to a port terminal investment project by the Cartagena Port Authority (Spain).

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