Fuzzy estimations and system dynamics for improving supply chains

Journal ar
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
  • Volumen: 161
  • Número: 11
  • Fecha: 01 June 2010
  • Páginas: 1530-1542
  • ISSN: 01650114
  • Source Type: Journal
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.fss.2009.12.002
  • Document Type: Article
In this paper, we evaluate the behavior of fuzzy estimations of demand instead of demand forecasts based on exponential smoothing in a two-stage, single-item, multi-period supply chain. A system dynamics model with fuzzy estimations of demand has been constructed for supply chain simulation. Fuzzy numbers are used to model fuzzy demand estimations. With a numerical example, we show that the bullwhip effect and the amplification of the inventory variance (NSamp) can be effectively reduced. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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